SYNEVA Economics

Rural Demographic Change in the New Century Slower Growth, Increased Diversity

tom — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 13:14:52 +0000

Study of US Census 200-2010. Rural population grew by just 2.2 million between 2000 and 2010—a gain barely half as great as that during the 1990s. The Carsey Institute

Key findings:

Rural growth diminished because migration slowed.
Rural population gains were largest in high-amenity counties and just beyond the metropolitan fringe.
Children are in the vanguard of the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of rural America in the twenty-first century.

Housing Affordability Reaches Record Level

tom — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 19:32:41 +0000

Nationwide housing affordability rose to a record level during the fourth quarter of 2011, while prospective home buyers continued to feel the constraints of tighter credit standards and a soft economy.

In Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio, Pa., the most affordable major housing market in the country during the fourth quarter, 95.1 percent of all homes sold during the quarter were affordable to households earning the area’s median family income of $54,900. Also ranking at the top of the most affordable major housing markets, in descending order were Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.; Modesto, Calif.; Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.; and Toledo, Ohio.

Among smaller housing markets, the most affordable was Kokomo, Ind., where 99.2 percent of homes sold during the fourth quarter of 2011 were affordable to families earning the median income of $59,100. Other smaller housing markets at the top of the index included Fairbanks, Alaska; Cumberland, Md.-W.Va.; Lima, Ohio; and Rockford, Ill.

In New York-White Plain-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., the least affordable major housing market during 2011’s fourth quarter, 29.0 percent of all homes sold were affordable to those earning the area’s median income of $67,400. This was the 15th consecutive quarter in which the New York metropolitan division held this position. Other major metro areas at the bottom of the affordability index included Honolulu; San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif.; Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.; and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., respectively.

Ocean City, N.J., where 47.5 percent of the homes were affordable to families earning the median income of $70,100, was the least affordable of the smaller metro housing markets in the country during the fourth quarter. Other small metro areas ranking near the bottom included Laredo, Texas; San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif.; Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif.; and Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas. National Association of Home Builders

The Geography of Government Benefits

tom — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 14:18:47 +0000

The share of Americans’ income that comes from government benefit programs, like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, more than doubled over the last four decades, rising from 8 percent in 1969 to 18 percent in 2009. Almost half of all Americans lived in households that received government benefits in 2010, according to the Census Bureau. The share climbed from 37.7 percent in 1998 to 44.5 percent in 2006, before the recession, to 48.5 percent in 2010. NYT

Williamson, Texas has largest county 2nd quarter 2011 over-the-year wage growth at 18.0%

tom — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 17:05:18 +0000

The U.S. average weekly wage increased over the year by 3.0 percent to $891 in the second quarter of 2011. Among the large counties in the U.S., Williamson, Texas, had the largest over-the-year increase in average weekly wages in the second quarter of 2011 with a gain of 18.0 percent. Champaign, Ill., experienced the largest decline in average weekly wages with a loss of 3.6 percent over the year.

Ottawa, Mich., had the largest percentage increase in employment among the largest U.S. counties (4.7 percent). The five counties with the largest increases in employment level were Harris, Texas; New York, N.Y.; Cook, Ill.; Maricopa, Ariz.; and Dallas, Texas. These counties had a combined over-the-year gain of 174,600, or 15.4 percent of the overall employment increase for the U.S.

Employment declined in 89 of the large counties from June 2010 to June 2011. San Joaquin, Calif., had the largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment (- 4.0 percent). Yakima, Wash., had the second largest employment decrease, followed by Montgomery, Ala., and Marion, Ore., both tied for the third largest decline, and Monterey, Calif. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment – November 2011

tom — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 23:45:26 +0000

Unemployment rates were lower in November than a year earlier in 351 of the 372 metropolitan areas, higher in 16 areas, and unchanged in 5 areas. The largest over-the-year unemployment rate decrease in November was registered in El Centro, Calif. (-3.7 percentage points). Five other areas recorded rate declines of 3.0 percentage points or more, and an additional 48 areas had decreases of at least 2.0 points. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash., reported the largest over-the-year jobless rate increase (+1.2 percentage points).

Two hundred thirty-nine metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 127 reported decreases, and 6 had no change. The largest over-the-year employment increase occurred in Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas (+87,900), followed by Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (+57,300). The largest over-the-year percentage gain in employment was reported in Hot Springs, Ark. (+7.0 percent), followed by Victoria, Texas (+6.3 percent). Bureau of Labor Statistics

America’s Most Economically Advantaged Metros

tom — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 19:15:42 +0000

Economic advantage is pretty much a bi-coastal affair, with 15 of the top 20 metros located on the East and West Coasts, including all of the major metros that make up the corridor between Boston and Washington. This includes New York, Baltimore and Philadelphia, as well as Hartford, Conn., and Manchester, N.H. Atlantic Cities

Most Secure Places to Live in the U.S.

tom — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 19:32:08 +0000

The Kennewick-Richland-Pasco, Wash., area is the most secure mid-size U.S. city (population between 150,000 and 500,000), while Ithaca, N.Y., ranks as the most secure small town (population less than 150,000).

Pittsburgh moved up 10 spots from a year ago to rank No. 1 among large metropolitan areas in 2011. This is Pittsburgh’s fifth appearance in the Top 20, with its previous best ranking ninth in the 2005 study. Its low housing depreciation, personal crime rate and motor vehicle deaths, along with a high stability rate contributed to its top rating. Farmers Insurance

Best-Performing Cities 2011: Where America’s Jobs Are Created and Sustained

tom — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 14:20:33 +0000

Determining which communities are recovering at the fastest pace and which weathered the recession best provides a framework for understanding the opportunities and related risks. Only a handful of communities have seen employment rebound to prerecession peaks; these regions are poised to capture a bigger share of the impending expansion. Milken Institute

Key findings:

Texas metros continued to dominate the rankings, taking four of the Top 5 positions and nine of the Top25. Overall, Texas employers were responsible for one of every five jobs created in the nation from June 2010 to June 2011.
San Antonio, Texas, secured the top spot among the nation’s 200 large metros, while last year’s leader,Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas, slid to fifth.
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas, was the top performer among the country’s 10 largest metros and ranked 16th overall.
Logan, Utah-Idaho, topped the small cities list after placing 19th last year.
Merced, Calif., recorded the biggest jump in ranking, leaping 105 positions to 63rd.

US County Compensation by Industry, 2010 Update

tom — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:21:16 +0000

Compensation increased in 2,480 counties and declined in 633 counties in the U.S. in 2010, as the average annual compensation per job increased 2.7 percent to $58,451. Total compensation of U.S. workers increased 2.2 percent in 2010, as net job losses partially offset compensation growth. Inflation grew 1.8 percent. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Total compensation grew 9.8 percent in Santa Clara County, CA and dropped -4.3 percent in San Mateo County, California
Increases in finance and insurance and professional, scientific, and technical services were the largest contributors to the growth.
Average annual compensation per job grew by 2.9 percent in 2010, ranging from $46,438 in El Paso County, Texas to $116,047 in New York County (Manhattan), New York.

Q1 2012 Manpower Employment Outlook: Most Promising U.S. Hiring Outlook Since 2008

tom — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 16:23:23 +0000

Among U.S. employers surveyed, 14 percent expect to add to their workforces, and 9 percent expect a decline in their payrolls during Quarter 1 2012. Seventy percent of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels, and the remaining seven percent of employers are undecided about their Quarter 1 2012 hiring plans.

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook is +9%. Survey results suggest that employers expect a slight increase in hiring during Quarter 1 2012 compared to Quarter 4 2011 and a relatively stable hiring pace compared to one year ago at this time. U.S. employers have now conveyed a positive Outlook for nine straight quarters and are anticipating the first increase in their hiring pace since Quarter 1 2011. Manpower (metro-level reports available)